1. What are the main sources of uncertainty that Dietze describes? What is the distinction between sources of uncertainty and sources of variation?

  2. Can uncertainty in initial conditions be reduced with more data? Can process error be reduced by collecting more data?

  3. Which components of uncertainty (e.g., in eq. 2.1) have the potential to grow through time? What implications does this have for our ability to forecast?

  4. What kinds of uncertainty/variability do you think are most important in ecological systems?

  5. If a forecast model doesn’t include all of these sources of uncertainty can it be a valid forecast?