What can we forecast?
- The reading suggests that three things influence our ability to forecast:
- how well the factors driving the response are understood
- the quantity of data available
- whether the forecast influences the thing being forecast
Why do each of these matter?
- Are there examples in ecology where a forecast could influence the thing being forecast?
Forecasting, planning, and goals
- What do we want short-term, medium-term, and long-term forecasts for in ecology?
- What kinds of actual time-scales would these represent?
- How might these different “forecasting horizons” influence our approaches to forecasting?
Determining what to forecast
- What is the difference between the cross-sectional and time-series approaches?
- What is a good example of cross-sectional forecasting in ecology?
- What is a good example of time-series forecasting?
- Why might we forecast using a time-series only model that ignores explanatory variables?